Investor advocates, government watchdog groups and progressives warn that the markets could fuel questions about the integrity and foundation of U.S. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).įor the market’s detractors, there is concern that election wagering could become the next speculative trading frenzy, à la crypto and meme stocks. Perhaps more critically, the fight has escaped out of the wonky confines of a financial regulatory body, and is now attracting the attention of prominent members of Congress, including Sens. But there have been few signs over the last year that the agency’s longstanding concerns about the markets running afoul of the “public interest” have been addressed. While the PredictIt fight rumbles through the court, another platform - Kalshi - has asked the CFTC to bless a plan to launch election markets on congressional control on a far larger scale, like theoretically allowing some Wall Street firms to wager millions. The platform sued, and late last month scored a significant victory in the Fifth Circuit that effectively preserves the status quo for now, letting the site continue to operate. This time last year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission - the federal agency that ended up with oversight of the industry - yanked a letter that effectively allowed PredictIt to operate “for academic purposes only.” Though bets are limited to $850 on PredictIt, it and other political market sites have attracted a mix of eclectic hardcore traders who make real money obsessively moving shares, more casual users who put up a few bucks and, yes, even political professionals.īut as sites like PredictIt became more popular, they’re attracting scrutiny from the federal government. Like any good market-based betting, it’s a good indicator of what a group of people think might happen, even if it’s not ultimately right. Should the former president win, every Trump yes share gets a dollar, and every Trump no share gets nothing. As of Sunday afternoon, Trump winning the nod sits at a 58 cent bet. Betters can buy “shares” on a particular political outcome, like who will be the GOP nominee. PredictIt is a website that is not dissimilar to a stock market for politics. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are - literally - on political market sites like PredictIt. Politics is full of bold, outlandish predictions.

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